Can proactive support prevent unscheduled care? A controlled observational retrospective cohort study in cancer patients in Scotland.

INTRODUCTION: Preventative spend is a global health and social care strategy. Improving Cancer Journeys (ICJ) is a proactive, holistic, multidisciplinary project consistent with this agenda, currently being rolled out across Scotland and parts of UK. ICJ helps people with cancer access whatever support they need to mitigate their most pressing concerns. This study hypothesised that ICJ service users should subsequently use less unscheduled care than matched cohorts not using ICJ. METHODS: Retrospective observational cohort study using linked national datasets. N = 1,214 ICJ users in Glasgow were matched for age, sex, deprivation, cancer type, stage, and diagnosis year to two control groups: 1. Cancer patients from Glasgow before ICJ (pre-2014), 2. Cancer patients from rest of Scotland during study period (2014-2018). Cancer registrations were linked for 12-month baseline and study periods to: NHS24 calls, A&E admissions, inpatient hospital admissions, unscheduled care, number & cost of psychotropic prescriptions. Per-person mean service uses were compared between groups. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in NHS24 calls in the ICJ group (0.36 per person vs. -0.03 or 0.35), more and longer A&E attendances in ICJ (0.37 per person vs. 0.19 or 0.26; 2.19 h per person vs. 0.81-0.92 h), more and longer hospital admissions in ICJ (4.25 vs. 2.59 or 2.53; 12.05 days vs. 8.37 or 8.64), more care pathways involving more steps in ICJ (0.77 spells vs. 0.39 or 0.57; 1.88 steps vs. 1.56 or 1.21), more psychotropic drug prescriptions and higher costs in ICJ (1.88 prescription vs. 1.56 or 1.21; £9.51 vs. £9.57 or £6.95) in comparison to both control groups. DISCUSSION: ICJ users sourced significantly more unscheduled care than matched cohorts. These findings were consistent with much of the comparable literature examining the impact of non-health interventions on subsequent health spend. They also add to the growing evidence showing that ICJ reached its intended target, those with the greatest need. Together these findings raise the possibility that those choosing to use ICJ may also be self-identifying as a cohort of people more likely to use unscheduled care in future. This needs to be tested prospectively, because this understanding would be very helpful for health and social care planners in all countries where proactive holistic services exist.

Application of the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction in Clinical Practice in Scotland and Sweden.

Importance: Whether the diagnostic classifications proposed by the universal definition of myocardial infarction (MI) to identify type 1 MI due to atherothrombosis and type 2 MI due to myocardial oxygen supply-demand imbalance have been applied consistently in clinical practice is unknown. Objective: To evaluate the application of the universal definition of MI in consecutive patients with possible MI across 2 health care systems. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from 2 prospective cohorts enrolling consecutive patients with possible MI in Scotland (2013-2016) and Sweden (2011-2014) to assess accuracy of clinical diagnosis of MI recorded in hospital records for patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 MI. Data were analyzed from August 2022 to February 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the proportion of patients with a clinical diagnosis of MI recorded in the hospital records who had type 1 or type 2 MI, adjudicated by an independent panel according to the universal definition. Characteristics and risk of subsequent MI or cardiovascular death at 1 year were compared. Results: A total of 50 356 patients were assessed. The cohort from Scotland included 28 783 (15 562 men [54%]; mean [SD] age, 60 [17] years), and the cohort from Sweden included 21 573 (11 110 men [51%]; mean [SD] age, 56 [17] years) patients. In Scotland, a clinical diagnosis of MI was recorded in 2506 of 3187 patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI (79%) and 122 of 716 patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 2 MI (17%). Similar findings were observed in Sweden, with 970 of 1111 patients with adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI (87%) and 57 of 251 patients with adjudicated diagnosis of type 2 MI (23%) receiving a clinical diagnosis of MI. Patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI without a clinical diagnosis were more likely to be women (eg, 336 women [49%] vs 909 women [36%] in Scotland; P < .001) and older (mean [SD] age, 71 [14] v 67 [14] years in Scotland, P < .001) and, when adjusting for competing risk from noncardiovascular death, were at similar or increased risk of subsequent MI or cardiovascular death compared with patients with a clinical diagnosis of MI (eg, 29% vs 18% in Scotland; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, the universal definition of MI was not consistently applied in clinical practice, with a minority of patients with type 2 MI identified, and type 1 MI underrecognized in women and older persons, suggesting uncertainty remains regarding the diagnostic criteria or value of the classification.

Community antibiotic prescribing in patients with COVID-19 across three pandemic waves: a population-based study in Scotland, UK.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine community antibiotic prescribing across a complete geographical area for people with a positive COVID-19 test across three pandemic waves, and to examine health and demographic factors associated with antibiotic prescribing. DESIGN: A population-based study using administrative data. SETTING: A complete geographical region within Scotland, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Residents of two National Health Service Scotland health boards with SARS-CoV-2 virus test results from 1 February 2020 to 31 March 2022 (n=184 954). Individuals with a positive test result (n=16 025) had data linked to prescription and hospital admission data ±28 days of the test, general practice data for high-risk comorbidities and demographic data. OUTCOME MEASURES: The associations between patient factors and the odds of antibiotic prescription in COVID-19 episodes across three pandemic waves from multivariate binary logistic regression. RESULTS: Data included 768 206 tests for 184 954 individuals, identifying 16 240 COVID-19 episodes involving 16 025 individuals. There were 3263 antibiotic prescriptions ±28 days for 2395 episodes. 35.6% of episodes had a prescription only before the test date, 52.3% of episodes after and 12.1% before and after. Antibiotic prescribing reduced over time: 20.4% of episodes in wave 1, 17.7% in wave 2 and 12.0% in wave 3. In multivariate logistic regression, being female (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.45), older (OR 3.02, 95% CI 2.50 to 3.68 75+ vs <25 years), having a high-risk comorbidity (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.61), a hospital admission ±28 days of an episode (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.77) and health board region (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.25, board B vs A) increased the odds of receiving an antibiotic. CONCLUSION: Community antibiotic prescriptions in COVID-19 episodes were uncommon in this population and likelihood was associated with patient factors. The reduction over pandemic waves may represent increased knowledge regarding COVID-19 treatment and/or evolving symptomatology.

Predicting the risks of kidney failure and death in adults with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease: multinational, longitudinal, population based, cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To train and test a super learner strategy for risk prediction of kidney failure and mortality in people with incident moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (stage G3b to G4). DESIGN: Multinational, longitudinal, population based, cohort study. SETTINGS: Linked population health data from Canada (training and temporal testing), and Denmark and Scotland (geographical testing). PARTICIPANTS: People with newly recorded chronic kidney disease at stage G3b-G4, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 15-44 mL/min/1.73 m2. MODELLING: The super learner algorithm selected the best performing regression models or machine learning algorithms (learners) based on their ability to predict kidney failure and mortality with minimised cross-validated prediction error (Brier score, the lower the better). Prespecified learners included age, sex, eGFR, albuminuria, with or without diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The index of prediction accuracy, a measure of calibration and discrimination calculated from the Brier score (the higher the better) was used to compare KDpredict with the benchmark, kidney failure risk equation, which does not account for the competing risk of death, and to evaluate the performance of KDpredict mortality models. RESULTS: 67 942 Canadians, 17 528 Danish, and 7740 Scottish residents with chronic kidney disease at stage G3b to G4 were included (median age 77-80 years; median eGFR 39 mL/min/1.73 m2). Median follow-up times were five to six years in all cohorts. Rates were 0.8-1.1 per 100 person years for kidney failure and 10-12 per 100 person years for death. KDpredict was more accurate than kidney failure risk equation in prediction of kidney failure risk: five year index of prediction accuracy 27.8% (95% confidence interval 25.2% to 30.6%) versus 18.1% (15.7% to 20.4%) in Denmark and 30.5% (27.8% to 33.5%) versus 14.2% (12.0% to 16.5%) in Scotland. Predictions from kidney failure risk equation and KDpredict differed substantially, potentially leading to diverging treatment decisions. An 80-year-old man with an eGFR of 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 and an albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 100 mg/g (11 mg/mmol) would receive a five year kidney failure risk prediction of 10% from kidney failure risk equation (above the current nephrology referral threshold of 5%). The same man would receive five year risk predictions of 2% for kidney failure and 57% for mortality from KDpredict. Individual risk predictions from KDpredict with four or six variables were accurate for both outcomes. The KDpredict models retrained using older data provided accurate predictions when tested in temporally distinct, more recent data. CONCLUSIONS: KDpredict could be incorporated into electronic medical records or accessed online to accurately predict the risks of kidney failure and death in people with moderate to severe CKD. The KDpredict learning strategy is designed to be adapted to local needs and regularly revised over time to account for changes in the underlying health system and care processes.

Association of ectoparasite Lepeophtheirus salmonis counts on farmed Atlantic salmon and wild sea trout in Scotland.

Parasitic sea lice (Copepoda: Caligidae) colonising marine salmonid (Salmoniformes: Salmonidae) aquaculture production facilities have been implicated as a possible pressure on wild salmon and sea trout populations. This investigation uses monitoring data from the mainland west coast and Western Isles of Scotland to estimate the association of the abundance of adult female Lepeophtheirus salmonis (Krøyer) colonising farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. with the occurrence of juvenile and mobile L. salmonis on wild sea trout, anadromous S. trutta L. The associations were evaluated using generalised linear mixed models incorporating farmed adult female salmon louse abundances which are temporally lagged relative to dependent wild trout values. The pattern of lags, which is consistent with time for L. salmonis development between egg and infective stage, was evaluated using model deviances. A significant positive association is identified between adult female L. salmonis abundance on farms and juvenile L. salmonis on wild trout. This association is consistent with a causal relationship in which increases in the number of L. salmonis copepodids originating from lice colonising farmed Atlantic salmon cause an increase of L. salmonis abundance on wild sea trout.

Increase in invasive Streptococcus pyogenes M1 infections with close evolutionary genetic relationship, Iceland and Scotland, 2022 to 2023.

Group A Streptococcus isolates of the recently described M1UK clade have emerged to cause human infections in several European countries and elsewhere. Full-genome sequence analysis of M1 isolates discovered a close genomic relationship between some isolates from Scotland and the majority of isolates from Iceland causing serious infections in 2022 and 2023. Phylogenetic analysis strongly suggests that an isolate from or related to Scotland was the precursor to an M1UK variant responsible for almost all recent M1 infections in Iceland.

Securing a lobbying win on XL bully neutering.

Following the introduction of bans on XL bully dogs across Great Britain, and the announcement of restrictions on the breed type in Northern Ireland, we welcomed the extension of the deadlines for neutering XL bullies in England, Wales and Scotland thanks to our campaigning alongside other organisations in the Dog Control Coalition.

Variation in colorectal cancer treatment and outcomes in Scotland: real world evidence from national linked administrative health data.

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common type of cancer in the United Kingdom and the second leading cause of cancer death. Despite improvements in CRC survival over time, Scotland lags behind its UK and European counterparts. In this study, we carry out an exploratory analysis which aims to provide contemporary, population level evidence on CRC treatment and survival in Scotland. Methods: We conducted a retrospective population-based analysis of adults with incident CRC registered on the Scottish Cancer Registry (Scottish Morbidity Record 06 (SMR06)) between January 2006 and December 2018. The CRC cohort was linked to hospital inpatient (SMR01) and National Records of Scotland (NRS) deaths records allowing a description of their demographic, diagnostic and treatment characteristics. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to explore the demographic and clinical factors associated with all-cause mortality and CRC specific mortality after adjusting for patient and tumour characteristics among people identified as early-stage and treated with surgery. Results: Overall, 32,691 (73%) and 12,184 (27%) patients had a diagnosis of colon and rectal cancer respectively, of whom 55% and 53% were early-stage and treated with surgery. Five year overall survival (CRC specific survival) within this cohort was 72% (82%) and 76% (84%) for patients with colon and rectal cancer respectively. Cox proportional hazards models revealed significant variation in mortality by sex, area-based deprivation and geographic location. Conclusions: In a Scottish population of patients with early-stage CRC treated with surgery, there was significant variation in risk of death, even after accounting for clinical factors and patient characteristics.

Association between benzodiazepine coprescription and mortality in people on opioid replacement therapy: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between opioid replacement therapy (ORT) and benzodiazepine (BZD) coprescription and all-cause mortality compared with the prescription of ORT alone. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Scotland, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were people prescribed ORT between January 2010 and end of December 2020 aged 18 years or above. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause mortality, drug-related deaths and non-drug related deaths. SECONDARY OUTCOME: ORT continuous treatment duration. ANALYSIS: Cox regression with time-varying covariates. RESULTS: During follow-up, 5776 of 46 899 participants died: 1398 while on coprescription and 4378 while on ORT only. The mortality per 100 person years was 3.11 during coprescription and 2.34 on ORT only. The adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 1.17 (1.10 to 1.24). The adjusted HR for drug-related death was 1.14 (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.24) and the hazard for death not classified as drug-related was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.30). CONCLUSION: Coprescription of BZDs in ORT was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, although with a small effect size than the international literature. Coprescribing was also associated with longer retention in treatment. Risk from BZD coprescription needs to be balanced against the risk from illicit BZDs and unplanned treatment discontinuation. A randomised controlled trial is urgently needed to provide a clear clinical direction. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04622995.

Investigating hill sheep farmers and crofters' experiences of blackloss in the Highlands and Islands of Scotland.

Hill sheep farming is an important component of Scottish agriculture and comprises a significant land use in much of the Highlands and Islands. However it faces significant challenges due to the natural constraints of the landscape. Hill sheep farming uses hardy traditional breeds, such as the Scottish blackface and North Country Cheviot to graze extensive areas, where the sheep are not housed and tend to lamb on the open hill. Flocks are gathered several times a year for stock checks, husbandry, and health treatments. Between these handling events, stock will disappear and be unaccounted for. These unexplained losses are known as blackloss in the Highlands and Islands. Previously reported figures for annual lamb blackloss give an average of 18.6%. These losses are in addition to the known losses of lambs and represent a significant welfare and sustainability issue. High parasite burdens, predation, a photosensitisation disease known as plochteach or yellowses, and poor nutrition are often given as presumed reasons for blackloss. A questionnaire was developed to assess the experiences, impacts and understanding flock managers have of blackloss. Typology analysis using partitioning around medoids was used to cluster respondents into three distinct groups: 1- very large extensive farms and Sheep Stock Clubs, 2- medium sized farms, and 3- small-scale crofts. The responses of these groups were subsequently analysed to see if their experiences and perceptions of blackloss differed with relation to lamb health challenges and predation impacts. The groups reported similar health challenges, apart from Group 1 which had a significantly higher plochteach challenge. In terms of predators, Group 1 also perceived white-tailed eagles (Haliaeetus albicilla) as a much higher threat to their lambs than the other groups. It was observed that many of the respondents believed blackloss is inevitable and that predators pose a large threat to lambs. However, most agreed that reducing these losses is important and that understanding the causes would enable them to do so.

Did the first description of patients with polymyalgia rheumatica take place in Scotland or in Denmark?

The first description of polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) is generally attributed to Dr. Bruce. In an 1888 article entitled Senile rheumatic gout, he described five male patients aged from 60 to 74 years whom he had visited at the Strathpeffer spa in Scotland. In 1945, Dr. Holst and Dr. Johansen reported on five female patients examined over several months at the Medical Department of Roskilde County Hospital in Denmark. These patients suffered from hip, upper arms, and neck pain associated with elevated ESR and constitutional manifestations such as low-grade fever or loss of weight. In the same year, Meulengracht, another Danish physician, reported on two patients with shoulder pain and stiffness associated with fever, weight loss, and an increased erythrocyte sedimentation rate. As in the five patients reported by Dr. Holst and Dr. Johansen, a prolonged recovery time was recorded. On reading and comparing these three accounts, we question whether it is correct to attribute the first description of PMR to Dr. Bruce and put forward shifting this accolade to the three Danish physicians.

Ongoing burden and recent trends in severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia events in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Scotland: A nationwide cohort study 2016-2022.

AIMS: We examined severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia (SHH) rates in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Scotland during 2016-2022, stratifying by sociodemographics. METHODS: Using the Scottish National diabetes register (SCI-Diabetes), we identified people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes alive anytime during 2016-2022. SHH events were determined through linkage to hospital admission and death registry data. We calculated annual SHH rates overall and by age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Summary estimates of time and stratum effects were obtained by fitting adjusted generalised additive models using R package mgcv. RESULTS: Rates for those under 20 with type 1 diabetes reached their minimum at the 2020-2021 transition, 30% below the study period average. A gradual decline over time also occurred among 20-49-year-olds with type 1 diabetes. Overall, females had 15% higher rates than males with type 2 diabetes (rate ratio 1.15, 95% CI 1.08-1.22). People in the most versus least deprived quintile experienced 2.58 times higher rates (95% CI 2.27-2.93) in type 1 diabetes and 2.33 times higher (95% CI 2.08-2.62) in type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Despite advances in care, SHH remains a significant problem in diabetes. Future efforts must address the large socioeconomic disparities in SHH risks.

The incidence of subsequent contralateral hip fracture and factors associated with increased risk: the IMPACT Contralateral Fracture Study.

Patients who sustain a contralateral hip fracture experience significantly inferior outcomes; however, the incidence and predictors of contralateral hip fracture remain poorly understood. In the present study, 2.5% of patients sustained a contralateral hip fracture within 12 months, and socioeconomic deprivation was associated with reduced risk of contralateral hip fracture. INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are associated with high morbidity and mortality, and patients that sustain a subsequent contralateral fracture experience inferior outcomes. The risk of contralateral fracture is highest within the first year; however, the incidence and associated factors remain poorly understood. The aims were to investigate (i) the incidence of a subsequent contralateral hip fracture within the first year, (ii) identify factors associated with an increased risk of contralateral fracture and (iii) compare early mortality risk after index versus contralateral hip fracture. METHODS: This study included all patients aged over 50 years admitted to NHS hospitals in Scotland between 1st March 2020 and 31st December 2020 (n = 5566) as routine activity of the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit (SHFA). Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with 30-day mortality, and cox regression was used to identify factors associated with a contralateral fracture. RESULTS: During the study period 2.5% (138/5566) of patients sustained a contralateral hip fracture within 12 months of the index hip fracture. Socioeconomic deprivation was inversely associated with increased risk of contralateral fracture (odds ratio 2.64, p < 0.001), whilst advancing age (p = 0.427) and sex (p = 0.265) were not. After adjusting for significant cofounders, there was no significant difference in 30-day mortality following contralateral fracture compared to index fracture (OR 1.22, p = 0.433). CONCLUSION: One in 40 (2.5%) hip fracture patients sustained a contralateral fracture within 12 months of their index fracture, and deprivation was associated with a reduced risk of contralateral fracture. No difference in 30-day mortality was found.